Tree-ring based precipitation reconstructions reveal hydroclimatic variability and a recent drying trend in northeastern Iran
Mazaherifar M, Foroozan Z, Pourtahmasi K, Bräuning A (2026)
Publication Type: Journal article
Publication year: 2026
Journal
Book Volume: 99
Article Number: 126587
DOI: 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126587
Abstract
Climate change is increasing stress on forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions, where tree growth is highly climate-sensitive. We examined climate controls on the tree-ring width (TRW) of Persian juniper ( Juniperus polycarpos ) at two semi-arid mountain sites in northeastern Iran, Qorkhūd Mountains and Hezar Masjed Mountain. The chronologies span 1231–2023 CE at Qorkhūd (793 years), and 1523–2021 CE at Hezar Masjed (499 years). Based on the EPS threshold (> 0.85), the reliable reconstruction intervals begin in 1612 CE and 1780 CE, respectively. Climate–growth analyses using CRU TS 4.03 and local synoptic records showed that Qorkhūd TRW responds positively to previous June–current May precipitation and negatively to temperature over the same period, whereas Hezar Masjed growth is mainly limited by previous October–current May precipitation. Linear regression models, validated by leave-one-out cross-validation, reconstructed precipitation for 1612–2022 at Qorkhūd (410 years; R² = 0.41) and 1786–2020 at Hezar Masjed (235 years; R² = 0.33). Both reconstructions show strong interannual to multi-decadal hydroclimatic variability. Synchronous dry years, including 1917, 2001, and 2008, and the wet year 1981, indicate regionally coherent precipitation anomalies. Recent decades include several of the most pronounced wet and dry events in the reconstructions, highlighting the occurrence of strong hydroclimatic extremes during the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries. At Qorkhūd, the reconstruction also captures the observed calibration-period precipitation decline. Exploratory analyses indicate temporally variable links with North Atlantic indices, including NAO and AMO. These records provide a long, multi-site hydroclimatic context for northeastern Iran.
Authors with CRIS profile
Mohammad Mazaherifar
Institut für Geographie
Zeynab Foroozan
Institut für Geographie
Achim Bräuning
Lehrstuhl für Geographie (Physische Geographie)
Involved external institutions
Iran, Islamic Republic of (IR)How to cite
APA:
Mazaherifar, M., Foroozan, Z., Pourtahmasi, K., & Bräuning, A. (2026). Tree-ring based precipitation reconstructions reveal hydroclimatic variability and a recent drying trend in northeastern Iran. Dendrochronologia, 99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126587
MLA:
Mazaherifar, Mohammad, et al. "Tree-ring based precipitation reconstructions reveal hydroclimatic variability and a recent drying trend in northeastern Iran." Dendrochronologia 99 (2026).
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